Economic impact of the “Road Diet”

The city’s proposed “Road Diet” proposes eliminating half of the trafic lanes lanes on Coast Highway, reducing Coast from 4 lanes to 2 from Oceanside Blvd. north to the Harbor. Of the four options, two options (Alternative 2,3) also narrow traffic lanes south to Morse Street, and one (Alternative 4) cuts it citywide, including all of South O.

Local businesses fear that the reduced access will put them out of business. However, the city has not released the data from its test “Road Diet”, nor does its latest EIR talk about the potential economic impacts of the road diet. (Comments on this EIR are due by 5pm January 14).

The 33 Month Pilot Study

For nearly three years — since March 31, 2016 — the city has experimented with a “temporary” road diet on Coast between Morse and Oceanside. At the time, city staff said the data would support the city’s proposed road diet citywide:

“I hopes this will prove we can do a two lane Coast Highway,” David DiPierro, city traffic engineer, said. “The public can see what a two lane Coast Highway would look like. If it does not work, as we intend it to work, we can revert back and study it more.”

When the “pilot program” was approved, the city said

[Scott] Smith said part of the pilot design would track changes in vehicles speeds and traffic patterns, including use of side streets.

A Traffic Measurement System would be installed in the study area between Oceanside Boulevard and Morse Street to measure vehicle travel time, speed and origin of destination. This would allow analysis of road changes on drivers’ commute times.

While the city has gathered the data, no report has been issued to the public. Individual council members have said they also have not received the data.

However, residents have experienced increased traffic congestion on this stretch between Oceanside and Morse, with traffic jams common on weekday afternoons and summer weekends. The city is aware of these effects.

coast-before
Coast Highway crossing Loma Alta Creek, before pilot project (Source: Bing Maps).
coast-after
Coast Highway crossing Loma Alta Creek, during pilot project (Source: Google Maps).

Studying Economic Impacts

When it comes to economic impacts, the November 2017 EIR only talks about the historic impacts of the Coast Highway, not the impact of the proposed changes. This phrase appears three times:

From the early to mid-20th century the Coast Highway was a major economic driver in the City of Oceanside and was largely responsible for the City’s growth from the 1920s through the 1950s.

Under the CEQA guidelines (14 CCR § 15131b in the California Code of Regulations) says

Economic or social effects of a project may be used to determine the significance of physical changes caused by the project. … Where an EIR uses economic or social effects to determine that a physical change is significant, the EIR shall explain the reason for determining that the effect is significant.

The discussion of economic impacts in the July 2017 EIR mainly focuses on the temporary disruption due to construction. However, it does say the proposal is consistent with the county’s strategy for increased residential density and reliance on alternative transit as a path towards “reduced congestion”:

Sustainable Communities Strategies

In October 2015 the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) adopted the 2015 Sustainable Communities Strategies (SCS), which builds on the previous 2011 SCS and directs investments within existing urbanized areas to encourage growth within existing higher-density urban boundaries and discourages urban and suburban sprawl. Elements of the 2015 SCS that have been implemented include the completion of bicycle and pedestrian projects and the expansion of transit with new rapid bus service. The goals of the 2015 SCS include increasing the number of homes and jobs near transit, reducing transit travel time, and achieving economic benefits due to reduced congestion and the construction of transportation infrastructure, as well as reducing air pollutant emissions.

Potential Impacts

At the January 3 meeting hosted by Save South O, local businesses (particularly those in the dip) complained about the disruption of the existing (temporary) road diet, as well as the greater harm of reducing lanes and increasing density, potentially citywide.

The fear of negative impact on local businesses is real. In the eight months of the “road diet” on Venice Blvd. in Los Angeles, 15 businesses have closed their doors. The remaining businesses are struggling with angry and frustrated customers.

With only about 50 businesses in South O along Coast Highway, losing 15 businesses here would be very damaging both to the community and to business confidence in Oceanside more generally.